Shape:
The bearish harami is a two-candle reversal candlestick pattern that typically forms after an uptrend.
It consists of:
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A large bullish (green/white) candle followed by
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A smaller bearish (red/black) candle that is completely contained within the body of the first candle.
This pattern indicates potential exhaustion of buyers and signals the possibility of a bearish reversal.
Success Rate:
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The bearish harami has a moderate success rate of 55–65%, depending on market conditions.
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It is more reliable in strong uptrends and near major resistance levels.
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Confirmation (e.g., follow-up bearish candle or volume drop) increases accuracy.
Buy:
Not applicable directly, since this is a bearish reversal pattern. However, traders holding long positions may use it as an exit signal.
Take Profit (TP):
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Measure the recent swing high to the neckline (support) and project downward for potential target.
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Conservative TP: recent swing low.
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Aggressive TP: next major support zone.
Stop Loss (SL):
Place the stop loss just above the high of the first bullish candle.
This protects against false signals if the uptrend continues.
Sell:
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Enter a short/sell position once the second candle of the pattern closes, confirming the bearish harami.
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Stronger signal if the next candle after the harami also closes bearish with increased volume.
Profit Trailing:
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Use a trailing stop above lower highs as the downtrend progresses.
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Alternatively, use a moving average (e.g., 20 EMA) to trail profits.
Lot Size:
Determine position size based on your account size and risk per trade.
Ensure that the potential loss (entry to stop-loss distance) does not exceed 1–2% of account equity.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
Aim for at least 1:2 or higher, where potential profit is twice the risk.
Leverage:
Use leverage carefully. Since this is a reversal signal, sudden pullbacks may occur.
Avoid over-leveraging, especially in highly volatile markets.
Other Conditions:
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Works best after a prolonged uptrend or near a resistance level.
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Confirmation from indicators like RSI (overbought), MACD (bearish crossover), or volume drop strengthens the signal.
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More reliable on higher timeframes (daily/weekly) than intraday charts.
Caution:
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False signals are common in sideways markets.
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A harami by itself is weaker compared to engulfing patterns; always wait for confirmation.
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Avoid trading during major news releases that can cause sudden volatility.
Pros and Cons of the Bearish Harami
Pros:
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Early Warning Signal: Provides early indication of a potential bearish reversal.
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Clear Structure: Easy to identify on charts.
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Effective at Resistance: Works well when spotted near strong resistance levels or after a sharp rally.
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Useful for Exiting Longs: Helps traders lock in profits on bullish trades.
Cons:
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Moderate Reliability: Alone, it’s weaker than other reversal patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing).
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Confirmation Needed: Requires additional bearish confirmation to increase accuracy.
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Choppy Market Issue: Less effective in sideways or consolidating markets.
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Short-Term Nature: Often signals short-term pullbacks rather than strong reversals.
Trading Psychology of Bearish Harami
Formation:
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Strong Uptrend: Buyers dominate, pushing prices higher.
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First Candle (Bullish): Confidence is high; buying pressure continues.
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Second Candle (Bearish, Small): Indicates hesitation — sellers are stepping in, buyers are losing strength.
Market Sentiment:
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Buyers’ Fatigue: The smaller bearish candle signals buyers are no longer as aggressive.
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Sellers’ Confidence: Sellers gain confidence seeing the smaller candle inside the large bullish one.
Breakout Psychology:
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Anticipation: Traders recognize the bearish harami and expect a reversal.
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Confirmation: A bearish follow-up candle or a break of support confirms bearish intent.
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Shift in Power: Traders start closing longs, while aggressive traders enter shorts.
Post-Pattern Behavior:
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Validation: If price falls below recent support with increased volume, the reversal is validated.
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Profit-Taking: Long holders exit positions, adding to selling pressure.
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Trailing Stops: Bears use trailing stops above lower highs to lock in gains.
Failure and Risk Management:
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False Signals: If price breaks above the bullish candle’s high, the pattern fails.
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Reevaluation: Traders must recheck with other indicators before holding shorts.
General Tips for Trading Psychology:
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Patience: Wait for confirmation before shorting.
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Discipline: Stick to your SL/TP levels.
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Emotional Control: Avoid panic if small pullbacks occur — focus on confirmation.
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Awareness: Understand that harami patterns often signal slowing momentum, not always a full trend reversal.